A new intelligence report forecasts a rapid acceleration in the global market for humanoid robots, driven by population decline, advances in artificial intelligence, and intensifying geopolitical competition.
The study – The Future of Humanoid Robots from Recorded Future’s Insikt Group – argues that humanoid robots are shifting from “speculative to attainable” as technological capabilities mature and labour pressures deepen.
The report finds that global demographic trends are now a primary driver of demand. “Global population decline is accelerating the demand for humanoid robots designed to operate within human environments and offset growing labor shortages across industries,” the authors write.
Humanoid robots, defined as “general-purpose, bipedal robots modeled after the human form and designed to work alongside humans,” are being developed for manufacturing, service roles, healthcare and even sporting applications. Some analysis suggests that by 2060 “there will be 3 billion humanoid robots, mainly working in households and service industries,” according to the report.
China emerges as dominant force
The report highlights China as the nation most likely to lead production, deployment and export of humanoid robots. It notes that the country is “on course to dominate the humanoid robotics sector,” supported by long-term industrial planning, heavy investment, a shrinking workforce and established manufacturing capacity.
China’s strategy contrasts with countries that have attempted to offset labour shortages through immigration. According to the report, China has instead prioritised “finding a technological solution rather than importing labor,” spending the last decade preparing its industrial base to mass-produce robots.
Some speculative forecasts cited in the report suggest China could eventually deploy “approximately 300,000,000 humanoid robots” to compensate for demographic decline. China also leads the world in patent filings mentioning humanoid robotics between 2020 and 2025, according to the data presented.
Products such as Unitree Robotics’ R1 humanoid – which the report notes “can already be purchased for around $5,500” – illustrate how quickly prices may fall as production scales. Analysts expect average bill-of-materials costs to drop to “$13,000 to $17,000 by the early 2030s.”
Industrial and automotive players enter the market
The report says both startups and established corporations are now investing aggressively. Automotive companies in particular “possess the expertise to mass-produce complex machinery on assembly lines” and are increasingly moving into humanoid robotics, partly to counter declining car sales.
Humanoid robots have already appeared in high-profile demonstrations, including the inaugural 2025 Robot Olympics in Beijing.
Cybersecurity risks escalate
A major theme of the report is the cybersecurity exposure caused by network-connected humanoid robots. It warns that they “will almost certainly be vulnerable to cyberattacks, ranging from hijacking and data leaks to the formation of botnets.”
Several real-world incidents are cited. Researchers “discovered a critical flaw in Unitree Robotics’ Bluetooth protocol that could let attackers wirelessly hijack its humanoid robots,” while leaked encryption keys in another model allowed one compromised robot to infect others. One model also “transmitted data to servers in China without user consent.”
These vulnerabilities followed a “viral incident in May 2025, in which a humanoid robot turned on its human handlers,” the report notes.
Unitree Robotics subsequently issued a statement acknowledging security issues, saying: “We have become aware that some users have discovered security vulnerabilities and network-related issues while using our robots. We immediately began addressing these concerns and have now completed the majority of the fixes.”
The authors conclude that a dedicated industry focused on securing humanoid robots is likely to emerge, similar to how cybersecurity developed alongside early computing.
Geopolitical and supply chain pressures
The study argues that a global race for robotics dominance will intensify competition for semiconductors, rare earth elements and other critical materials – potentially heightening geopolitical tensions. “The robotics race will put pressure on obtaining minerals and semiconductors, which in turn will accelerate geopolitical tensions,” the report states.
Cyber-espionage targeting robotics companies is also expected to increase. Recorded Future’s network intelligence already shows “state-linked malware families targeting the robotics industry,” likely in pursuit of sensitive IP.
A transformative but uncertain future
While long-term projections – including the possibility of billions of humanoid robots worldwide – remain speculative, the report emphasises that recent breakthroughs in AI and robotics make such scenarios increasingly plausible.
Yet significant barriers remain. The “energy demands of humanoid robots” and the requirement for “massive quantities of critical materials” could slow growth. Some analysts cited in the report also warn of an impending “hype crash.”
Still, the authors conclude that humanoid robots are likely to play a major role in future economies, particularly in countries facing severe demographic decline: “Modern economies rely on sustained consumption and productivity growth … yet across much of the developed world this two-century trend of population growth is reversing.” Humanoid robots, they argue, may be one of the few viable paths to sustaining economic output.
