Here at RoboticsAndAutomationNews.com Towers, we love to let readers know about completely new technologies that are opening up entirely new and unpredicted markets – or at least ones we hadn’t thought about here.
I mean, things like the electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs) – small, light aircraft about the size of a car designed to carry around four passengers over short distances. eVOTLs have been subject of much hype over the past few years.
We’ve been part of that hype in the sense that we have covered the market extensively even though, strictly speaking, it probably doesn’t come within our subject area of robotics and automation – we have to stretch the meaning somewhat anyway.
We find eVTOLs and small aircraft an exciting technology that could ease congestion in city centres, reduce pollution and give those rich people that are on or near the top of tall skyscrapers – whether in penthouses or supercool offices like ours – a far more fun way to get around town than, say going down to the level of the rest of humanity and take an Uber or something the lower classes tend to do.
Actually, we’ll admit that, along with humanoids, it’s probably the most interesting technology we have been covering of late – we even created a category called “aircraft” for it.
eVTOLs are probably classed as aircraft by other people as well, rather that drones, which tend to be autonomous or remote controlled. eVTOLs are generally piloted by a human, although autonomous – or pilotless – eVTOLs do exist and certainly would make commercial sense, even though I can’t imagine anything more terrifying right now than flying in a pilotless aircraft.
But I might be in the minority – most people may actually be okay with getting around in an autonomous eVTOL. I’m not sure. Anyway, I probably couldn’t afford the fare.
The viability of eVTOL businesses: Air taxis of the future
When I, and maybe others, think of “air taxis”, images from the film The Fifth Element come to mind. Those airborne vehicles, like the one driven or flown by Bruce Willis, just look like regular cars or even battered old New York cabs. Maybe if they looked like that in real life, more people would use them. Actually, in truth, there’s a distinct category for such a technology – flying cars.
eVTOLs do not look like regular road-going cars or taxis. They look very much like regular small planes. And they have been hailed as the future of urban mobility for the past few years, with makers and proponents promising to revolutionise city transportation with air taxi services.
However, the question remains: Can eVTOL businesses become commercially viable? In this article, we explore the market potential, challenges, and key players in the emerging eVTOL industry.
Note: This “market”, such as it is, is often referred to as the “urban air mobility” market, and also the “advanced air mobility” market.
Prominent companies in the eVTOL space
Let’s begin with a list of the most prominent companies developing eVTOLs – but please note that this list is not comprehensive or ordered in any way, so apologies to companies we have not included.
We have included Volocopter, which ceased trading, or went into liquidation, in the past few days. Maybe someone will come along and buy it for pennies on the dollar and relaunch it under a different name or something.
As we’ve indicated before, the market is just too interesting to give up on, and most people would accept that there will be some casualties along the way – this is frontier technology after all and things are wild and dangerous on many levels.
- Airbus: With its CityAirbus NextGen, Airbus is a significant player in the eVTOL space, leveraging its aviation expertise to create innovative urban mobility solutions.
- Joby Aviation: A Silicon Valley-based leader, Joby is known for its extensive testing and partnerships, including collaborations with Uber.
- Lilium: Based in Germany, Lilium’s five-seat eVTOL jets are designed for both urban and regional travel.
- Volocopter: Despite its early successes, Volocopter recently went into liquidation, highlighting the financial challenges in the industry.
- Ehang: This Chinese company is pioneering pilotless eVTOLs, with its autonomous aerial vehicles (AAVs) gaining regulatory approvals in some regions.
- Archer Aviation: Backed by major investors like Stellantis, Archer is focusing on US urban air mobility.
- Beta Technologies: Known for its cargo and logistics eVTOLs, Beta is exploring niche applications outside passenger transport.
- Wisk Aero: A Boeing-backed company specialising in pilotless, autonomous eVTOL aircraft.
- Vertical Aerospace: Based in the UK, it aims to combine innovative designs with traditional aviation standards.
- Bell (Textron): With its Nexus air taxi concept, Bell is integrating its helicopter expertise into the eVTOL market.
Market potential for eVTOLs
The eVTOL market is projected to grow significantly. According to a 2023 report about eVTOLs by Allied Market Research, the global eVTOL market size could reach $30 billion by 2030, driven by increased urbanisation, technological advancements, and investments in sustainable transportation.
Similarly, Deloitte’s Urban Air Mobility report predicts that major cities could adopt eVTOL networks within the next decade.
However, the market’s growth is contingent on overcoming regulatory hurdles, public acceptance, and infrastructure development. We won’t get into those details in this article because it would just make it too long, but we’ll certainly get into it in the future.
Financial struggles in the industry
The journey for eVTOL companies has not been smooth. Volocopter’s liquidation exemplifies the financial strains, including high R&D costs, certification delays, and market uncertainties. Other struggling firms include:
- Urban Aeronautics: Initially focused on compact air taxis, this Israel-based company has shifted to niche military applications due to limited commercial viability.
- Zunum Aero: Once touted as a hybrid-electric aircraft pioneer, it ceased operations in 2020 due to funding challenges.
The economics of eVTOL businesses
Operating an eVTOL business requires addressing several economic factors:
- Fare costs: Initial fares could range from $100-$300 per trip, far higher than traditional taxis or ridesharing services.
- Passenger capacity: Most eVTOLs are designed to carry 2-5 passengers per trip, limiting scalability.
- Operational costs: Key expenses include electricity, maintenance, pilot salaries (if applicable), and landing fees.
- Revenue potential: Assuming full passenger loads and high utilization rates, profitability could hinge on reducing costs through automation and economies of scale.
One slightly negative view of the whole market may be worth mentioning here. In an article on the Royal Aeronautical Society website, Bursting the eVTOL bubble, Bill Sweetman explores the most pertinent questions about investing in the eVTOL market.
Pilotless eVTOLs: One-third cheaper
Autonomous eVTOLs, like those developed by Ehang, could significantly reduce operating costs by eliminating pilot salaries. For example:
- Cost savings: Pilots account for approximately 30 per cent of operational costs in traditional aviation.
- Regulatory challenges: Autonomous operation faces stricter regulatory scrutiny, potentially delaying widespread adoption.
If autonomous technologies are successfully integrated, they could make eVTOL businesses more financially viable in the long term.
Cities best suited for eVTOL ecosystems
Certain cities are more likely to sustain eVTOL networks due to high population density, wealth, and infrastructure readiness. Top contenders include:
- New York City (USA): High demand for quick intercity travel.
- Abu Dhabi (UAE): Recently launched the world’s first commercial air taxi service.
- Shanghai (China): Dense urban layout with robust investment in air mobility.
- Tokyo (Japan): Advanced infrastructure and tech-friendly policies.
- Singapore: Government-backed urban air mobility initiatives.
- Paris (France): Plans to deploy air taxis for the 2024 Olympics.
- Los Angeles (USA): A city known for traffic congestion and innovation adoption.
- Dubai (UAE): Aggressive investments in futuristic transport solutions.
- Seoul (South Korea): Urban density and advanced tech ecosystems.
- London (UK): Strong interest in reducing road congestion and emissions.
Up, up and down
The viability of eVTOL businesses remains uncertain because it it may be constrained by on technological, regulatory, and economic factors. While the potential market is enormous, significant challenges – including high costs, public scepticism, and infrastructure gaps – must be addressed.
Cities like Abu Dhabi are leading the way with the recent launch of a taxi service there, but widespread adoption will require substantial advancements in autonomy, affordability, and infrastructure.
With major players like Airbus and Joby Aviation continuing to innovate, and autonomous eVTOLs like Ehang offering cost-saving solutions, the future of urban air mobility does look promising, albeit fraught with challenges.
Whether eVTOLs become a viable urban transport solution or remain a niche luxury will depend on how the industry navigates these hurdles.
